NFL 2019 Week 16 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · December 18, 2019

This post will cover the weekly rankings generated by our models.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Mahomes might have a “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory; it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 35.4 </td> <td> 23.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Drew Brees </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 27.1 </td> <td> 33.2 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 24.3 </td> <td> 30.2 </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ryan Tannehill </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 29.2 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jimmy Garoppolo </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 22.0 </td> <td> 26.8 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Carson Wentz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 21.9 </td> <td> 27.5 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Russell Wilson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 29.3 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mitchell Trubisky </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 20.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> 41.4 </td> <td> 25.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 19.1 </td> <td> 31.9 </td> <td> 19.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> 31.7 </td> <td> 18.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miles Sanders </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 30.7 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 28.7 </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 27.9 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Ekeler </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 28.0 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Alvin Kamara </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 28.4 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Devin Singletary </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 27.8 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> 32.2 </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> 25.3 </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Carson </td> <td> SEA </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> 24.3 </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Derrick Henry </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 14.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miles Sanders </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 23.9 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Jacobs </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> 23.0 </td> <td> 13.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Devin Singletary </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Joe Mixon </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 21.7 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kenyan Drake </td> <td> ARI </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> 22.1 </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 28.4 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 27.6 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Robert Woods </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> D.J. Moore </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 24.4 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sterling Shepard </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> 24.1 </td> <td> 14.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Stefon Diggs </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 23.8 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 23.6 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 19.3 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 11.5 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> 18.1 </td> <td> 10.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Chris Godwin </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Robert Woods </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 17.6 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> D.J. Moore </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 9.7 </td> <td> 16.7 </td> <td> 9.7 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Sterling Shepard </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 9.4 </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> 9.4 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Stefon Diggs </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> 16.3 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jarvis Landry </td> <td> CLE </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> 15.8 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Keenan Allen </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> 16.1 </td> <td> 9.2 </td> <td> NA </td> <td> NA </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> 25.6 </td> <td> 16.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 14.0 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 14.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 20.5 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> 20.0 </td> <td> 12.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Higbee </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 19.5 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jonnu Smith </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 9.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 17.1 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 8.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 7.8 </td> <td> 13.9 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> 13.6 </td> <td> 7.7 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Higbee </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> 7.6 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> 12.7 </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jonnu Smith </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mark Andrews </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> 11.8 </td> <td> 6.2 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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