NFL 2019 Week 15 Projections - Top 10 At Each Position

By Andy Troiano · December 11, 2019

This post will cover the weekly rankings generated by our models.

Quick Thoughts

We are not manually modifying the projections from our models because we think something is or isn’t going to happen. We are trusting in the data.

We have a Rank of the Risk for the player obtaining their upside / downside projection in the tables below, which will help you understand the spread in the rankings. This will also allow you to get a feel for how the model views the ranges of performance for a given player. Other sites are going to give you the mean prediction, we are going to help you understand how confident the mean score is going to occur.

  • In general:
    • The downside risk for top players will be high because there projected scores are significantly higher than other players.
      • For example - Mahomes might have a “Very High” for downside risk because he is supposed to ball out with 23 points. The chance of his downside risk is probably low because he is so good, right now, I don’t have the probability of attaining each prediction. That is something we are going to work on later this season.
    • The upside risk for top players will also generally be lower because they generally score close to the most points that can be expected at their position.

About the Graphs and Tables

The graphs are self-explanatory; it is going to provide you with the projected points for the players for the top 10 at each position.

The tables contain:

  • Points - Average points for the player

  • Upside Points - Upside opportunity for a player

  • Downside Points - Downside risk for a player

  • Upside Point Opp - Rating for the point opportunity given the players position

  • Downside Point Opp - Rating for the point downside given the players position

QB

Top 10 QB

QB Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Jameis Winston </td> <td> TAM </td> <td> 27.0 </td> <td> 33.5 </td> <td> 23.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Matthew Stafford </td> <td> DET </td> <td> 25.8 </td> <td> 28.7 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Drew Brees </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 29.8 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Lamar Jackson </td> <td> BAL </td> <td> 25.2 </td> <td> 35.4 </td> <td> 25.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Deshaun Watson </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 23.7 </td> <td> 29.8 </td> <td> 22.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mitchell Trubisky </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 28.9 </td> <td> 23.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dak Prescott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 23.1 </td> <td> 27.4 </td> <td> 21.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jimmy Garoppolo </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 22.6 </td> <td> 26.4 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Kirk Cousins </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 22.5 </td> <td> 26.7 </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ryan Tannehill </td> <td> TEN </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> 29.8 </td> <td> 22.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

RB

Top 10 RB

RB PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 37.5 </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> 33.2 </td> <td> 19.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> 32.7 </td> <td> 18.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James White </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> 33.6 </td> <td> 17.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miles Sanders </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> 30.4 </td> <td> 16.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> 28.2 </td> <td> 16.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Jacobs </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Melvin Gordon </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> 27.3 </td> <td> 15.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Aaron Jones </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 26.0 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Devin Singletary </td> <td> BUF </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 26.7 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
RB STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Christian McCaffrey </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> 30.2 </td> <td> 18.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Leonard Fournette </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 26.7 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Ezekiel Elliott </td> <td> DAL </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> 26.8 </td> <td> 15.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Miles Sanders </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> James White </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> 26.8 </td> <td> 13.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Josh Jacobs </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dalvin Cook </td> <td> MIN </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 22.8 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Melvin Gordon </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> 22.3 </td> <td> 12.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Todd Gurley </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 21.5 </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Joe Mixon </td> <td> CIN </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 20.9 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

WR

Top 10 WR

WR PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 28.8 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Robert Woods </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 27.2 </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> 26.0 </td> <td> 16.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> 26.9 </td> <td> 16.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> D.J. Moore </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> 15.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> 15.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> 25.4 </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DJ Chark </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> 25.0 </td> <td> 15.5 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> 24.5 </td> <td> 15.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
WR STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Michael Thomas </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> 19.7 </td> <td> 12.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Robert Woods </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 10.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyreek Hill </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 18.6 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julian Edelman </td> <td> NE </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 17.9 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> D.J. Moore </td> <td> CAR </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 10.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Allen Robinson </td> <td> CHI </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DeAndre Hopkins </td> <td> HOU </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> 17.6 </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> DJ Chark </td> <td> JAC </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> 17.3 </td> <td> 10.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Julio Jones </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Davante Adams </td> <td> GB </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> 16.9 </td> <td> 10.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

TE

Top 10 TE

TE PPR Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 22.2 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> 21.4 </td> <td> 13.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 12.9 </td> <td> 21.2 </td> <td> 12.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 21.1 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 12.5 </td> <td> 20.8 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> 18.8 </td> <td> 10.7 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Higbee </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> 18.4 </td> <td> 10.6 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Goedert </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 17.4 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> 17.2 </td> <td> 9.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
TE STD Upside/Downside
<table> <thead> <tr> <th> Name </th> <th> Team </th> <th> Points </th> <th> Upside Points </th> <th> Downside Points </th> <th> Upside Point Opp </th> <th> Downside Point Risk </th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> Travis Kelce </td> <td> KAN </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> 15.0 </td> <td> 9.0 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> George Kittle </td> <td> SFO </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> 14.6 </td> <td> 8.4 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Zach Ertz </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 8.3 </td> <td> 14.5 </td> <td> 8.3 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Hunter Henry </td> <td> LAC </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> 14.4 </td> <td> 8.2 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Austin Hooper </td> <td> ATL </td> <td> 8.1 </td> <td> 14.3 </td> <td> 8.1 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Evan Engram </td> <td> NYG </td> <td> 8.0 </td> <td> 14.1 </td> <td> 0.0 </td> <td> Low </td> <td> Very High </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Darren Waller </td> <td> OAK </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> 12.8 </td> <td> 6.9 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tyler Higbee </td> <td> LAR </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> 12.6 </td> <td> 6.8 </td> <td> Very High </td> <td> Low </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas Goedert </td> <td> PHI </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> 12.0 </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Jared Cook </td> <td> NO </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> 11.9 </td> <td> 6.3 </td> <td> High </td> <td> Medium </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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